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Thinking Ahead: Anticipating an HINI Swine Flue Pandemic


Now that World Health Organization has declared the outbreak of novel variant H1N1 “swine” influenza to be a pandemic, the issue is “so what?” How will the spread of this pandemic influenza affect human societies and economies — even specific markets, industries, and companies?

We know from past experience with SARS and H5N1, and from many studies carried out over the past few years1, that pandemic influenza can have enormous consequences for global trade and travel, with extremely large economic impacts. Precisely because this is so, a systematic approach to developing an “early warning” system with respect to the evolution of the disease event – its current and future trajectory, the local and global implications, and the reactions these provoke – can provide enormous benefits and opportunities to those prepared to act.

Economic Impact of Selected Infectious Diseases

Bio-era has developed just such an approach to tracking and reporting on the evolution of the H1N1 disease event in a manner designed to support market-based decision-making. We believe a systematic scenarios-based approach to monitoring, analyzing and reporting on the unfolding pandemic can provide significant advantages and benefits to business decision-makers.

Estimates of Human Loss and Economic Damage from a Pandemic