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According to experts from the World Health Organization, the risk of a deadly
global influenza pandemic is now greater than at any time in the
past several decades. The economic and business consequences of
such an event are difficult to predict, especially since it has
been more than 35 years since the last, relatively mild, pandemic
occurred. Nonetheless, experience with the SARS epidemic indicates
that in the early stages of a pandemic, economic shock waves would
move around the world much more quickly than the actual spread
of the disease, causing severe disruptions to international travel
and trade and downward shocks in financial markets.
Preparing for the business and economic challenges that could emerge
from the current avian flu crisis in Asia will require supple and
sophisticated strategies based on assessments of possible future
events that span a wide spectrum of possibilities. In this report,
we:
- Assess the current situation in Asia, explore possible future
scenarios, and identify signposts to watch
- Consider economic and
business implications of a global influenza pandemic, taking
into consideration lessons learned from SARS,
the role of information, and Bio Era’s quantitative assessments
of different
countries’ exposure to economic disruption from a pandemic
- Profile
areas of opportunity for companies to provide solutions that
might reduce the risks of pandemic emergence, or to help
mitigate its impacts.
The attention now being paid by the business and financial community
to the risks posed by emerging infectious diseases is part of
a broader effort to come to terms with the new economics of
biosecurity—an
interconnected set of biological issues and economic forces that
are affecting the global economy in increasingly significant
ways. A new focus on these issues is driving stakeholders to
develop
business
strategies that consider the underlying forces and realities
of the emerging bioeconomy. These forces include evolutionary
processes,
such as those at work in disease emergence, as well as the impact
of human activities and rapidly advancing biological technology.
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