The widening geographic scope of H5N1 outbreaks in recent weeks has heightened concerns that the disease will continue to spread in the months ahead along with autumn bird migrations in Asia. This news, together with recent announcements concerning vaccine development, stockpiles of anti-viral drugs, and possible intervention strategies to contain outbreaks of human-transmissible H5N1, provides critical new information for analyzing avian flu risks using scenarios.

In this call, we review and analyze recent developments and update the scenario framework created by bio era in March 2005. The latest information allows better elaboration of the critical junctures and possible outcomes outlined in bio era's original "scenarios roadmap."