The prospect of crop-based production of pharmaceuticals and other novel proteins has attracted attention in the farm sector as a possible avenue for high-value crop production in the years ahead. Our analysis suggests that while some new opportunities may emerge for growers, the total size of field production of such specialty crops (not including biofuels-related production) will likely be less than 25,000 acres over the next decade. The total payments to growers for growing these crops in the U.S. in 2003 probably totalled, at most, only a few hundred thousand dollars. Over the decade ahead, it is possible that farm sector earnings from crop-based bioproduction could rise to as high as $50-70 million annually if current field trials are successful and if commercial and regulatory obstacles to larger-scale production can be overcome. Even at this level, crop biomanufacturing would remain a miniscule fraction of overall farm sector income and would involve just a small number of highly specialized growers.

Our assessment of farm sector opportunities associated with crop-based bioproduction suggests the following conclusions:

• The additional costs that growers will have to incur to produce these crops will be significant, including provisions for production area buffer zones, and special handling, equipment and storage.
  
• Growers of these crops may face additional financial risks, including those associated with the financial instability of biotechnology companies and possible liabilities for contamination of food products.
  
• A handful of growers in countries including the U.S., Canada, Ireland, and Ukraine, appear to be gearing up to handle specialized bioproduction requirements.
  
• "Field and farm" production costs are likely to represent less than 1% of the ultimate market value of the pharmaceutical products derived from these crops.
  
• Only some of the high-value specialty proteins for pharmaceutical or industrial applications have enough annual demand (more than a few kilograms per year) to justify open field production.
  
• Some biotechnology companies may take on crop production activities themselves rather than contracting with growers in order to achieve greater control over production and handling.

Overall, many uncertainties remain about the future of this sector, especially those related to regulatory policies and the relative advantages of various competing production technologies.